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Wanna Play $TSLA but no Money? $VALEsubmitted by ExtraEgg to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
TLDR: $TSLA is likely partnering with $VALE to produce the insane quantity of Nickel needed to make Tesla’s vehicles, this is almost certainly happening for the following reasons…
READ FULL BEST DD ON WSB
If there is one to take away from this post, it is the fact that Tesla vehicles need nickel and insane quantities of it. No one is better equipped to supply nickel to Tesla than $VALE. During Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Elon painstakingly laid out how badly they were looking for a nickel producer.
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”
>>>THE STARS ALIGNED<<<
The following points are largely circumstantial evidence, however when stacked together create an extremely powerful narrative and points toward the extreme likelihood of $VALE actually having lined up a revolutionary deal with Tesla.
Quotes from Tesla Q2 2020 Earnings Call
“There’s so much to be excited about. It’s really hard to kind of fit into this call, but the sheer amount of hardcore engineering, especially on the autonomy and the manufacturing/engineering front is mind-blowing. And then of course there’s Battery Day, which is coming up pretty soon. And I think that’s really going to surprise people by just how much there is to see.”-Elon Musk
“Yeah. The real limitation on Tesla growth is cell production at affordable price. That’s the real limit. So that’s where — we’re going to talk about — a lot more about this on Battery Day because this is a fundamental scaling constraint. And any part of that supply chain or processing at the cell level will be a limiting factor. So whatever it may be, anywhere from mining to refining — there’s many steps from refining to cathode and anode, cell formation. Whatever the choke point is, that will set the growth rate. And so we expect to expand our business with Panasonic, with CATL, with LG, possibly with others, and there’s a lot more to say on that front on Battery Day.”-Elon Musk
“Well, I’d just like to re-emphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. Okay. Wherever you are in the world, please mine more nickel and don’t wait for nickel to go back to some long — some high point that you experienced some five years ago, whatever. Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally-friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time, if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way. So hopefully this message goes out to all mining companies. Please get nickel.”-Elon Musk
“Like the thing that bugs me the most about where we are right now is that our cars are not affordable enough. We need to fix that. So we’re all making progress in that regard, just sort of steadily gaining progress. So yeah, we need to not go bankrupt, obviously. That’s important, because then we’ll fail in our mission. But we’re not trying to be super profitable either, obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%. It’s not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable. Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth, and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that’s what we’re trying to achieve.”-Elon Musk
Philippe Houchois — Jefferies — Analyst
“Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. You mentioned a few times about the constraint to growth is battery capacity still. And I was hoping you could clarify the scope of the Berlin plant you’re building right now. Will there be — the battery capacity consistent with the amount of assembly volume you expect to come out of Berlin? And if not, will you be able to source your battery requirements out of Europe? Will you have to import batteries from outside Europe to ensure production in Berlin?
Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
Okay. We can’t say too much about this, except that there will be local cell production, and that will serve the needs of the Berlin factory. Drew, is there anything…?”(TeslaRati by Joey Klender)
$VALE mines nickel in Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and New Caledonia making it the LARGEST producer of nickel. VALE has joint-venture refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, the UK and Taiwan. These locations will help deliver nickel to the Tesla factories in North America, Berlin and China.
Future Nickel Demand
According To Tesla CEO Elon Musk, This Metal is The New Gold
The demand and future of nickel will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Electric vehicles and other modern technology NEED nickel to function.
“With demand expected to increase from 2.2 million metric tons to somewhere in the range of 3.5 million to 4.0 million metric tons by 2030, the nickel market could become constrained.”-McKinsey and Company By Marcelo Azevedo, Nicolas Goffaux, and Ken Hoffman
Elon Musk’s Emphasis on “Environmentally Friendly”
During the call and clip that was hyperlinked above, Elon emphasizes the demand for an “environmentally friendly” mine. Historically, we all know mines have run into trouble with being friendly toward the environment. Today more than ever, a company's concern for the environment must be vocally expressed and physically acknowledged. If not, the reporters and media will bash Tesla for not being environmentally sensitive. Elon Musk understands this and is aware that the nickel company Tesla chooses must at least appear as if they are environmentally “sensitive". Vale’s website has information on how they are sustainable and conscious of the controversies surrounding the mining industry.
“Given Tesla’s focus on sustainability, the company is likely to prefer to buy from miners of higher-grade nickel sulphide, which requires less power to process than laterite ore, said Lachlan Shaw of National Australia Bank.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton“There are three key suppliers - Brazil's Vale VALE3.SA, which operates in Canada using some hydropower, Russia's Norilsk Nickel GMKN.MM and BHP Group's operations BHP.AX in Western Australia. "Vale is in the box seat," he said.”-Reuters, Yilei Sun, Melanie Burton
Just the appearance and attempt to be environmental is enough to scare away most journalists who are looking to make a hit piece on Tesla. To wrap it up, Vale has the efficient, sustainable, and environmental mining that Elon Musk is looking for.
Stock Fundamentals and Technicals
$VALE Average Volume: 27,756,238
9/15/2020 volume: 44,035,430
This is a 37% increase in Volume compared to the average volume.
Current P/E of 50.53, Forward P/E of 5.22
Annual Yield 6.06% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Extra Dividend of 1.63% Ex date 9/22/2020 Pay date 10/07/2020
Hedge Funds who own $VALE
Bill Ackman: Pershing Square Capital Management
Carl Icahn: Icahn Carl C
Warren Buffet: Berkshire Hathaway/Dividend Stock Portfolio
George Soros: Soros Fund Management
Laurence D. Fink: Blackrock Inc.
“A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) is the #11 broker analyst pick, on average, out of the 50 stocks making up the Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index, according to Metals Channel. The Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index is comprised of the top fifty global leaders from the metals and mining sector.” (Metals channel staff)
FlowAlgo of VALE and Volume/OI below in the green box
Volume and Open interest on far right
Monthly signals: Buy
MA(5) Buy Buy
9 buys 3 sells
Weekly Signals: Strong Buy
MA(5) Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (60.683)
Daily Signals: Strong Buy
MA(5) Buy Buy
12 buy 0 sell
RSI(14) Buy (58.562)
News Doesn't Care About Technical Analysis
No matter how good the TA setup is for $VALE, news does not give a FUCK about TA. If it has a catalyst to moon... moon it will.
The increasing and regular cash flow has built a very strong balance sheet for VALE and the consistent high yield will keep the loyal investors around. In addition to this year's regular dividend, $VALE is paying investors an extra dividend of 1.63% on the same day as the regular. According to research firms such as CFRA, the management team has been very active and engaged to keep the company moving in the right direction despite COVID-19 setbacks and a decrease in steel demand.
$HNCKF (Giga Metals corp) a competing mining company fell 18.84% today after being in the news about potentially being a candidate for Tesla’s nickel demand. Currently, at a conservative rate, Giga’s mine would stop being able to satisfy Tesla’s Nickel needs by 2025, assuming they would be able to begin mining operations immediately. On the other hand, yesterday (Sept. 16), Vale announced that they had created buffers to reach production of 400 million metric tons of total mineral mining per year in a filing that was part of an investor tour presentation. Nickel is one of the five metals Vale mines.
I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine
Tesla and Vale already have a bidirectional relationship that GM and NKLA could never even dream of. Tesla and Vale have a history of working together. In March, “Antonin Beurrier, CEO of Vale-NC and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, signed a contract, an offtake agreement for the delivery of intermediate mixed nickel and refined cobalt (Nickel Hydroxide Cake-NHC) produced in New Caledonia. The product will become part of Tesla’s battery composition. The purchased volume remains confidential.”-Tesmanian by Eva Fox (original french source). Tesla and Vale have already signed a confidential contract in regards to Tesla’s battery composition materials needed.
In 2019, Tesla hired an Engineer from Vale-NC to “facilitate procurement and familiarization with the products of the Caledonian plant”
"Tesla has recruited an engineer in a nickel-cobalt refinery in New Caledonia, that of Vale, in order to facilitate purchases for its large European electric vehicle factory in Berlin."
Vale using Tesla’s Lithium batteries at Guaiba iron ore port
“Iron ore miner Vale is installing a Tesla battery energy storage system at Ilha Guaiba terminal in Rio de Janeiro state to help meet power needs at the port as it moves toward energy saving technology.”-London“
The project will substitute 20% of the facility's power costs using Tesla manufactured lithium-ion batteries with technology contributing to decarbonization plans, Vale said in an Aug. 24 statement.”-London
Tesla’s technology is being used to lower costs at Vale’s iron ore and to contribute to the “decarbonization plans”. If you remember in the Q2 conference call, Elon Musk was searching for environmental and efficient nickel. Vale has that now thanks to Tesla's battery technology.
More Vale environmentalism
‘Vale recently announced investments of over $2 billion to reduce direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions by 33% until 2030, in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Vale said it intends to become carbon neutral by 2050.”
"As Vale continues to decarbonize its operations, the use of batteries will become an increasingly important part of the electrification of our fleet," Vale's energy director Ricardo Mendes said in the statement.
"This project allows us to test new technology in the field and accelerate Vale's energy transformation, which aims to achieve self-sufficiency by increasing electric power generation mainly through solar and wind sources in addition to our hydroelectric power generation,"-London
Guess who has a large nickel mine in Indonesia, $VALE
Pricing and Math
After calculating a very conservative estimate of how much nickel Tesla would be needing in the future, these were the results… (see figure below)
With a conservative estimate of a $43 billion dollar contract, $43 billion minus the operating margin (38%)= $16.5 billion. This gives the stock 28% upside. The price target for $VALE is $15.36 with a 5% variance giving a low at $14.80 and a high of $16.00 Not to mention the stock market acts very irrational in times of hype, the stock could very well overreact to $20+CFRA’s current 12 month price target for VALE is $15.00, whom most likely have not anticipated Tesla news. (If they get the news, this thing will FLY based on what we have seen this year)
Elon Musk stated that Tesla “will give you a giant contract for a long period of time
Conservative nickel projections
This is not taking into account that the price of nickel is lagging in comparison to its current and future demand. Current nickel price as of 9/16/20: $15,229.50 per ton
Nickel Price: $15,229.50 per ton
Once the demand for nickel goes up and the supply grows scarce, that's easy economics theory, nickel price goes up.
The Plot Thickens
Put on your tinfoil hats for this one…
Elon Musk has a history of hiding stuff in his tweets.
We remember this one. He had called out that Tesla stock was too high at a pre split price of $750
Elon Musk has had a rough history with the SEC whom he outspokenly does not respect. This tweet was deciphered to read “Suck Elon’s Cock”
The Tesla short shorts represented the current Tesla models,
Reporter: “But how do they know if it is going to move the market if they are not reading all of them?”
Elon Musk: “I guess we might make some mistakes, who knows?”
Reporter: “Are you serious?”
Elon Musk: “Nobody's perfect”
Now let’s break down the battery day tweet
I rest my case
VALE 9/25 $12.00c
VALE 9/25 $13.00c
VALE 1/15/2021 $12.00c
$VALE GANGEDIT: formatting, GIGA Metals is down 11%
EDIT 2: I'm not fucking selling. Either we moon to Valehalla or the captain goes down with his ship.
disclaimer: none of this is financial advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. nothing in this post should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment.
|Padres||Mike Clevinger (0-0, -.-- ERA)||FS1||KWFN, XEMO (ES)|
|Dodgers||Walker Buehler (0-0, -.-- ERA)||FS1-INT||570, KTNQ (ES)|
|MLB||Fangraphs||Brooks Baseball||Reddit Stream||Discord|
|Gameday||Game Graph||Strikezone Map||Live Comments||/baseball Discord|
|Padres||Clevinger has never faced the Dodgers in his career. The righty notched a 2.84 ERA in four starts for the Padres after arriving from Cleveland at the Trade Deadline.|
|Dodgers||Buehler’s blister on his index finger doesn’t take away from his nastiness, as he showed for all but one bad pitch against Milwaukee. But the Dodgers are rationing his usage to preserve him for future games, so he might only be a four-inning pitcher again in Game 1.|
|T4||Austin Nola singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder AJ Pollock. Wil Myers scores.||0-1|
|B5||Cody Bellinger reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Justin Turner scores. Will Smith to 3rd.||1-1|
|B6||Corey Seager out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Chris Taylor scores.||2-1|
|B6||Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wil Myers. Mookie Betts scores.||3-1|
|B6||Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Justin Turner scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. Will Smith to 2nd.||4-1|
|B6||AJ Pollock flies out to left fielder Jurickson Profar.||5-1|
|Fernando Tatis Jr. makes a diving stop in the 1st||0:14||HD|
|Mike Clevinger exits with an injury in the 2nd inning||0:15||HD|
|Austin Nola slaps an RBI single in the 4th inning||0:15||HD|
|Justin Turner scores on a throwing error in the 5th||0:15||HD|
|Corey Seager hits a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the 6th||0:15||HD|
|Justin Turner rips an RBI single in the 6th||0:16||HD|
|Cody Bellinger rips an RBI single in the 6th||0:15||HD|
|Mookie Betts hits a double for the Dodgers first hit||0:15||HD|
|Max Muncy scores on wild pitch in the 6th inning||0:15||HD|
|Winning Pitcher||Losing Pitcher||Save|
|May (1-0, 0.00)||Richards, G (0-1, 27.00)|
|79°F, Partly Cloudy||7 mph, Out To LF|
Stock market optimism for a stimulus package has been rising, but the focus swings to earnings and that could be a positive for stocks in the week ahead.
JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley all release earnings in the first big wave of corporate reports. There is also some important data, including CPI inflation data Tuesday and retail sales for September on Friday.
“It looks like earnings season might turn out better than expected, based on early reports,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “The guidance looks pretty good. So, we have earnings season upon us, the stimulus talks go back and forth, and it looks like maybe there’s a will to get something done.”
On Friday afternoon, the White House raised its offer for at stimulus package to $1.8 trillion but was still below the $2.2 trillion sought by Democrats. “It’s really hard to read,” said Keon.
But he said even if there’s no agreement on stimulus now, there should be a package after the election, regardless of who wins.
“I actually put some money to work in small caps on the belief if we get further stimulus either soon or a few months from now, you do want to own economically sensitive stocks,” said Keon.“We’re reasonably constructive on the market and valuations are not cheap, but compared to the 10-year [Treasury yield] at less than 80 basis points, stocks don’t look that bad.”
Stocks in the past week had their best performance since early July, with the S&P 500 up 3.8% at 3,477. The small cap Russell 2000 was up 6.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield had a big move during the week from about 0.70% to as high as 0.79% Friday. Yields move opposite price, and the 10-year yield has now broken out of a range its been stuck in below 0.70%.
Earnings could provide positive momentum for stocks, if companies continue to beat estimates at a healthy pace, like last quarter.
“Q2 reporting season saw S&P 500 earnings beat at an unprecedented rate, both in terms of breadth (85%) and size (+20%), prompting historically rare, strong upgrades to forward estimates, especially for the cyclicals, and one of the strongest earnings season rallies on record,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategists.
The summer earnings rally came before the big September decline, which took the S&P 500 down about 10%. The S&P 500 is up more than 8% since Sept. 24.
“While the bottom-up consensus for Q3 is for a sharp rebound in headline earnings, the bulk of it is being driven by reductions in loan loss provisions and Energy sector losses. Excluding these, underlying earnings growth is forecast to barely move up (-15% to -13%), despite rising Q3 GDP growth estimates pointing to a strong macro rebound,” they noted.
The Deutsche strategists said the question remains, however, whether the market will respond to earnings beats or election uncertainty.
Keon said the market has been moving up as former vice president Joe Biden extended his lead in the polls because there’s less chance of an uncertain outlook the more one candidate leads. According to RealClearPolitics, he was leading President Donald Trump by 9.7 percentage points, from just about 6 points at the beginning of the prior week.
“I think from the market’s perspective, it doesn’t really matter who wins, as long as we have a clear winner,” said Keon. “I think the direction of the polls are suggesting that we’re going to have a clear winner either on election night or a few days after that. The risk of a messy contested election is going down, and the market is relieved by that.”
Tom Block, Washington analyst at Fundstrat, said Trump appears to be hoping for a stimulus bill signing before the election to help his re-election effort.
“There are many moving parts here, and they’re all moving in different directions,” said Block. “It’s not impossible a deal comes together but the pathway to a deal is not clear on Friday afternoon because of the mixed signals that have come out over the last seven days from the White House.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has opposed a large package, and the two sides have been stalemated. “I think the president believes that he will be helped by having a signed ceremony at the White House approving the bill, that the optics of signing the bill that’s going to send relief to people is an optic he desperately wants, and it can’t hurt,” he said.
The economic recovery is going on in the background, and some parts of the economy have shown real improvement, like housing.
Retail sales on Friday is a good look at how the consumer has been faring, now that enhanced unemployment benefits have been gone for the past two months. Economists expect 0.6% gain in retail sales, the same as August.
Keon said it is important to get some more help for the economy through stimulus. There is expected to be one-time payments to individuals and enhanced employment benefits.
“That would be good news for the market, if we could get more help where it is needed. We really just need to get a bridge for a more normal circumstances next year,” said Keon.
Ten-Baggers Under TrumpIn our prior post we looked at the best and worst performing S&P 500 stocks since Election Day 2016. In this post we've broadened our filter and looked at the Russell 3,000, which is an index that covers more than 98% of all publicly traded market cap in the US. Within the Russell 3,000, there are 32 stocks that are up more than 1,000% since Trump was elected. These 32 "ten-baggers" -- as Peter Lynch liked to call them -- are listed in the table below.
At the top of the list is Enphase Energy (ENPH), which is up 8,892% since Election Day 2016. While Enphase has "Energy" in its company name, it's actually a Technology sector stock that "manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control." Next up is Zynex (ZYXI) with a gain of 7,211%, followed by Digital Turbine (APPS) up 5,320%. ZYXI markets itself as a "better and safer way to manage pain" than opiods using electrotherapy devices. APPS is an app marketing company that helps app developers get their product on as many devices as possible.
Of the 16 best performing Russell 3,000 stocks since Election Day 2016, 15 come from either the Technology or Health Care sectors. XPEL is the only stock in the top ten that's not in either the Tech or Health Care sectors. Up 2,341% since Trump was elected, XPEL is a Consumer Discretionary stock whose main product is to provide auto-paint protection.
Along with the names mentioned already, other notables on the list of ten-baggers under Trump include Jack Dorsey's Square (SQ), pet-food maker Freshpet (FRPT), digital health company Teladoc (TDOC), the arts and crafts social media company Etsy (ETSY), and of course, Tesla (TSLA). With a gain of 1,002% since November 8th, 2016, Tesla just barely makes the cut!
Best Performing Stocks Since Election Day 2016On Monday we published our asset class performance matrix showing total returns for key ETFs since Election Day 2016 (11/8/16). Today we wanted to highlight the individual stocks traded on US exchanges that have performed the best and the worst since President Trump surprised the world with a victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. First off, below is a chart showing the average performance of stocks in each S&P 500 sector since Election Day 2016. (These are based on stocks currently in the index and not as the index stood on 11/8/16.)
As shown, the average stock in the broad S&P 500 is up 67.3% since Trump was elected. Four sectors have posted stronger average returns than that -- Technology (+160.4%), Health Care (+100.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+74.6%), and Industrials (+69.9%).
The Energy sector stands out like a sore thumb in the chart below. While every other sector has at least averaged double-digit percentage gains, the stocks in the Energy sector are down an average of 52.3% since Trump was elected! Other sectors that have been weaker than the broad market include Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Financials.
If you were to ask most people back in November 2016 which areas of the market should outperform under Trump and which should underperform, you'd likely see results that are the exact opposite of what has actually happened. Sectors like Energy, Real Estate, and Financials would have been expected to benefit from Trump since those are the industries he's most associated with, while Tech is a sector that's usually expected to benefit more when the Democratic party is in control.
General Electric (GE) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are the two names that stand out the most. Each of these stocks were at one point in time the largest company in the world, but they're both now shells of their former selves with huge losses over the last four years. Remember these two examples when you're looking at the largest companies in the world right now. Chances are a few of them will experience similar fates as GE and XOM over the next ten to twenty years.
News High for Net New HighsYesterday, the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since only a few days after the early September high. While the index has yet to reach a new high, many individual stocks in the index have. As shown in the charts below, 11.71% of S&P 500 stocks closed at a new 52-week high yesterday while no stocks closed at a new 52-week low. That makes for the second-highest net new highs reading of the pandemic with the only higher reading (17.62%) occurring just over a month ago at the last all-time high on September 2nd. Before that, the last time net new highs were as high as now was on February 19th: the last all-time high before the bear market began.
As for the individual sectors, there has also been a significant pickup in the net percentage of new 52-week highs. Industrials currently has the highest reading of net new highs among the 11 sectors at 26%. Just like the broader S&P 500, that is the highest since September 2nd when the net percentage of new highs rose above 30%. Consumer Discretionary is the runner up in being the sector with the highest percentage of net new highs. One distinguishing factor, though, is whereas every other sector has seen higher readings at some point since the bear market in the spring, Consumer Discretionary's current reading of 18% is tied with the reading from August 24th. On the other end of the spectrum, both Communication Services and the Energy sector have seen no new highs over the past few days. Granted, there have not been any new 52-week lows either. Meanwhile, Financials and Real Estate have both seen an uptick in net new highs, but it has been much more modest than other sectors.
Breadth BoomingOne of the most notable aspects of the rally off the late September lows has been broad participation. As shown below, breadth is very strong as the 10-day advance-decline lines for several sectors are at some of their highest levels of the past year. For the S&P 500, the 10-day advance-decline line is at its highest level since June 8th. The same can be said for Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Real Estate. For Consumer Staples, the sector's 10-day A/D line is at its highest level since June of 2019 and for Health Care it is at its highest level since May of 2019. In the case of Technology, it has been even longer as that sector's line is at its highest level since last April.
While broad participation is healthy for the long-term prospects of a rally, these 10-Day A/D lines have gotten extremely overbought in the near term, suggesting a cool-down period is likely in the days ahead.
Election-Year October Market Performance Volatile since 1950October’s history of volatility was recapped in the October Almanac as well as it being the worst performing month of election years since 1950. In the following chart we have plotted election-year October performance for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 since 1950 (NASDAQ since 1972 and Russell indexes since 1980) alongside their historical performance excluding gruesome election-year October 2008.
With or without October 2008, historical performance has been uninspiring in election years. Excluding 2008, October has generally started off on a positive note, but by around the fourth trading day, strength has tended to fade with weakness persisting until around the eighth trading day. Then a modest rally ensued through mid-month followed by more weakness and finally a rally to end the month. Grey shading highlights the two historical windows of weakness that could setup our Seasonal MACD indicators.
- (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. $101.20JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.35 per share on revenue of $28.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 12.31% with revenue decreasing by 22.03%. Short interest has increased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% below its 200 day moving average of $104.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,290 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
Johnson & Johnson $150.97Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $20.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.13% with revenue decreasing by 1.59%. Short interest has decreased by 19.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.4% above its 200 day moving average of $144.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,050 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.7% move in recent quarters.
Citigroup, Inc. $44.93Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.01 per share on revenue of $17.12 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.99% with revenue decreasing by 34.43%. Short interest has decreased by 23.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.9% below its 200 day moving average of $54.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,737 contracts of the $50.00 call and 18,010 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
Bank of America Corp. $25.36Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $20.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.55 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.33% with revenue decreasing by 27.85%. The stock has drifted higher by 6.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.1% below its 200 day moving average of $26.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 33,467 contracts of the $25.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
Progressive Corp. $99.88Progressive Corp. (PGR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.71 per share on revenue of $10.56 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.42% with revenue increasing by 10.80%. Short interest has increased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.1% above its 200 day moving average of $81.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 728 contracts of the $95.00 call and 710 contracts of the $95.00 put expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. $32.81Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $3.10 per share on revenue of $3.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($3.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 233.62% with revenue decreasing by 75.40%. Short interest has decreased by 24.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 28.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% below its 200 day moving average of $34.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,729 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
BlackRock, Inc. $611.57BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:20 AM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $7.46 per share on revenue of $3.92 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $7.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.34% with revenue increasing by 6.18%. Short interest has decreased by 36.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.1% above its 200 day moving average of $522.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $327.84UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.98 per share on revenue of $63.73 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 23.20% with revenue increasing by 5.60%. Short interest has decreased by 6.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $289.47. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,031 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
Wells Fargo & Co. $25.30Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:50 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.46 per share on revenue of $17.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 34% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue decreasing by 33.83%. Short interest has decreased by 15.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.6% below its 200 day moving average of $32.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 29,138 contracts of the $27.50 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $207.54Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.37 per share on revenue of $9.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.11% with revenue decreasing by 27.98%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $200.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, September 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,311 contracts of the $200.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.3% move in recent quarters.
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Procter & Gamble 10/27/2020 Q1 Earnings Play (NYSE: PG)Alright retards, buckle up. Daddy's taking you on a ride through boomer-ville and the only stop we are making is at tendie-town.
What is Procter & Gamble? P&G is one of the largest and most successful FMCPG companies out there and a boomer favorite for long-term dividend investing. They also manufacture, sell, and manage some of the most premium and best performing consumer staples out there. With a focus on baby care, fabric care, family care, feminine care, grooming, hair care, home care, oral care, personal health care, and skin & personal care. Yeah, that's a fuck ton of categories they play in. And yet, they have market-leading brands in each of these categories. Take a look at their portfolio of brands in this pretty collage of logos I made for you faggots.
In case you are too debilitated from down syndrome to catch some of their big hitters, I'll list them out here for you. All these brands net over $1,000,000,000 in retail sales per year:
Sounds boring... so why the fuck are we talking about P&G? Because this 182 year old company has milked the FUCK out of this pandemic. Without needing to wait for vaccine rumors, travel restriction alleviation, stimulus rallies, & election bullshit P&G has been fucking the proverbial shit up by selling to the 130,000,000 American households a fuckton of toilet paper, paper towels, multipurpose cleaners, dish detergent, laundry detergent, air fresheners, etc. fr the past 7 months. That's right, the empty shelves induced by panic buyer has an undisputable winner - P&G.
Bath Tissue Aisle - Walmart
Household Cleaning Aisle - Walmart
Diaper Aisle - Kroger
"But hurr durr panic buying has stopped"
Don't be a fucking retard. Read the next section.
Fabric Care (Tide, Gain, Downy, Bounce, Dreft, Era, Cheer) P&G sales boom as stay-at-home consumers do more laundry.
That's right, what happens when the wage slaves of the world are working from home? They mute themselves, turn off the video, and run fucking the washing machine. Lockdown and shelter-in-place has led to an explosion in household chores to include washing and drying clothes. Guess what everybody is wearing at home? Not their fucking dress clothes but casual clothes that are now being redirected to the home washedryer rather than out-sourced to dry cleaning services. Literally, the only headwind to P&G's fabric care business is you greasy fucks refreshing the daily thread and sorting by new posts hoping to secure early entry on the next big pump have probably stopped doing laundry altogether.
Family Care (Charmin, Bounty, Puffs) Why toilet-paper demand spiked 845%.
Self-explanatory. Toilet paper, paper towels, and even tissues have been perpetually out-of-stock. And it's not because we are out of trees to chop down but because pantry loading and consumption have exploded. At home pantry levels are increasing due to fear of another panic buy. Working from home and shitting on company time means you are now using even more toilet paper than before. Staying at home more means you are cleaning more which leads to higher paper towel consumption. Kids learning from home instead of at school means more messes which means more Bounty sales.
Dish and Air Care (Febreze, Dawn, Gain, Cascade) Dishwashing Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: Supplies Expected to Grow by 275%.
Staying at home and restaurant shut downs means an explosion in home cooking. Which means consumption of dish detergent and auto dish detergent are skyrocketing. More cooking, more messes, more body odors at home leads to more air freshener use. I hope you're starting to get the fucking trend here.
Baby Care (Pampers, Luvs) Families Scramble to Find Baby Formula, Diapers and Wipes.
Look, babies aren't shitting more but you can't reason with the power of post-birth brain lapse group think. Families are stocking the fuck up on diapers and wipes cause they're afraid of rampant out-of-stocks. And I know this one will be hard for your virgins to understand, but once we are 9 months into the pandemic (Dec/Jan) we will see an explosion of new births due to all the stay at home baby making leading to another boom in daiper sales.
Surface Care (Swiffer, Mr. Clean, Microban) Sales of cleaning products are skyrocketing during the pandemic.
This is the big one. While a handful of retards stock up on toilet paper, everyone in the entire fucking country is cleaning more. The fucking CDC is releasing cleaning tips. Mommy blogs are fucking writing about how to efficiently clean. Late night talk shows are talking about cleaning. Swiffer and Mr. Clean have been out of stock since March and consumption is through the roof. But that's not even the biggest sign that we are on our way to tendie-town... Let's talk about Microban.
As Virus Concerns Rise, P&G Introduces Product To Kill Bacteria For 24 Hours
That's right. In March of 2020 - this fucking year - right when the pandemic hit. P&G launches a new brand that disrupted the sanitization and antibacterial space. A consumer sanitizer that has residual, long lasting, kill and effective on SARS-CoV-2. Competitive santizers only kill bacteria on contact and Microban is able to protect the surface for a 24hr period. This is a groundbreaking product without any competitive parities that launched at the start of the pandemic. Guess what matters to stockholders & the share price? Growth vs. prior year. Guess what blockbuster brand didn't exist in P&G's portfolio in the prior year - Microban. The keyword here is incrementality. This killer product, launched at the most serendipitous time, is going to be completely incremental to P&G's revenue and profit and has been completely sold out since the first week of launch.
How do we know P&G's supply chain can supply all this growth potential? The New Construction Approach That Helped P&G Build Their “Plant Of The Future”. P&G just built a new plant that requires 1,800 fucking factory workers in West Virginia. P&G gears up new $500M plant.. They threw $500,000,000 at this bitch to stand up a 2million sq ft manufacturing site. Construction started in 2015 and new reports say that it was full operational only recently. And guess what they produce at this plant? Fabric Care, Household Cleaners, Dish Detergent, and more.
Okay, so what does all this mean to P&G's earnings? Fucking 🚀🚀🚀.
All the categories we just covered represent 60% of P&G's net sales in 2019. That means 60% of P&G's sales year ago has been consuming full tilt to the point that they can't even keep shelves in stock.
P&G beat earnings per share in their Q4 by 14%. October 27th will be their first earnings in the new fiscal year and they will similarly crush analyst expectations.
Analysts are estimating only a measily 3% growth YoY on EPS.
They got the estimates completely wrong last quarter and they will undervalue the surge in consumption in this next quarter as well.
That's right P&G only needs to beat a 3% growth YoY. With 60% of their business completely exploding due to the pandemic, a 3% growth target is going be absolutely decimated like your TSLA FDE calls on battery day.
Need more reason to believe? P&G revenue grew 4.8% in their previous fiscal year. And 3/4 of the fiscal year did not benefit from pandemic consumption levels.
Additional indirect indicators that P&G is going to exceed expectations:
What the play to print? 30 days before their last earnings there was a $11 run-up and then another $9 run-up the 30 days after. Since then PG has been trading sideways. IV is low and we are about 30 days before the next earnings call which means the time is now to get into the pre-earnings run-up. And because this isn't a meme stock being traded by retards across the world, the post-earnings run-up will print without substantial IV crush.
Hop in faggots, we're headed towards tendie-town.
10/23 $140c 10/23 $150c 11/20 $150c 11/20 $160c
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What is Devil May Cry?Devil May Cry is an action series developed and published by Japanese company Capcom, beginning with Devil May Cry 1 in 2001 for the Playstation 2 (Here's an advert showing it as part of Sony's holiday lineup that included landmark gaming titles such as Final Fantasy X, Grand Theft Auto 3, Metal Gear Solid 2 and... Baldur's Gate Dark Alliance). The game series began as a prototype build for Resident Evil 4 that had more of an overt action focus than the acclaimed horror franchise was known for. Rather than scrap the build, Capcom saw potential in the idea of a stylish action game, and gave director Hideki Kamiya permission to make it a full title.
The build up to 2010With DMC 4's release in 2008, Capcom set the sales expectation that the game would sell 1.8 million units by the end of the fiscal year. DMC 4 would sell two million units in under a month, but Capcom were a bit unimpressed. They were hoping that now that DMC was on a wider range of platforms that the sales would correspondingly go up, but instead the game just saw a modest increase over DMC 3. The cost of game development had also shot up in the new console generation, making Capcom more concerned about DMC4's sales just being fine, especially coming off of huge sales juggarnauts from 2007 such as Halo 3, Call of Duty Modern Warfare and Bioshock. (It doesn't help that DMC 4 had a very rushed development leading to the now infamous case of Dante's playable chapters just being Nero's but backwards)
The TGS TrailerFor those unaware of DMC, I should stress that by 2010, it had a reputation for a certain flair and theatics. Dante was known to be a goofball in cutscenes, taunting enemy demons and making a mockery of them. He has an entire cutscene in DMC 4 where he acts like he's on the stage of a theatre with how grandious he is. People liked Dante for this reason, he was a breath of fresh air in a time when most protagonists were stotic, gritty jerks who only talked in curse words and gravelly shouts. And his flowing white hair was also certainly iconic.
The developmentSo Dante got a new color palette, a darker jacket and black hair. But at the time (this news only came out two years after the redesign was revealed), people didn't know about Capcom explicitly telling NT to go off the rails, and what they saw... was Ninja Theory going off the rails in the wrong way.
While Capcom Japan kept a close eye on Ninja Theory’s work on DmC’s characters, story and world, its greatest focus was, naturally, on the game’s combat. Itsuno and other key personnel would visit the studio in Cambridge every few months to check in on its progress, Ninja Theory staff would often make the trip out to Japan, and in between those times there would be regular video conferences and daily email updates. All that communication helped to unify the two companies, despite a fundamental split between their approaches to game development: Ninja Theory liked to start with the visual design, and Capcom with the mechanics. Modestly, Itsuno admits he learned a lot from the collaboration; Tucker believes she picked up an awful lot more. “I learnt so much,” she says. “Itsuno would speak philosophically about how he approaches combat and enemy design. They build most of the player’s set of actions first, and then think about the things they can build to allow players to exploit particular elements of the system they’ve designed. They really put the emphasis of the baddie design back onto the player’s actions. It’s kind of obvious, but just the way that he spoke about it was inspiring, and it made a lot of sense to me.”The damage however, was long done. Even with the post-TGS revisions, DmC was facing an uphill battle from the community, with a minority waiting to give it a try themselves before casting judgement, but the majority either being apathetic or downright hostile to the game, not helped by Tameen's attitude creating the idea that Ninja Theory inherently hated what made Devil May Cry good (again, keep in mind most players wouldn't learn that Capcom were pushing for the radical Dante changes until years post-release). Ultimately though, Capcom themselves are to blame for the choices that impacted DmC: Ninja Theory were only doing their jobs to the best of their abilities and for the most part many of the staff clearly loved getting to work on such a popular franchise and boosting their studio's name. It came down an unfortunate blend of Capcom misreading what people wanted from future projects, an attempt to appeal to a Western market that fell on its face, and a director unprepared for the mass backlash his product got.
The game itselfEh, it was OK.
"It's a good game, but it's not a good Devil May Cry."The fanbase were willing to concede to the good aspects of the game- especially in audiovisual aspects. Enemies now got a subtitle during their first appearance, weapons getting a slight glint when the player pauses to let them know they can launch a pause combo attack, the soundtrack was now dynamic and evolved up the higher your style rank got, alongside the killing blow at the end of a fight getting a cinematic camera angle. Ninja Theory's sense of style itself was something that impressed the Capcom team, as all of these aspects were modified and adopted into the mainline games come 2019. The game was also very beautiful in places, leaving the Gothic archetecture of the main games for a more European feel in Limbo City. Madrid in Spain and Genoa in Italy are clear influences on the archetecture, and the design team adapt them well in making Limbo a city that is itself a weapon trying to kill Dante through compressing alleyways, closing off paths or mocking him through writing on the walls, Splinter Cell Conviction style. Combichrist and Noisia's collaberations for the soundtrack were also praised between their licensed work and new music composed just for the game, especially the songs Never Surrender and Throat Full of Glass.
(While I'm on the topic of weird fighting game trivia, Donte actually also got a full fighting game appearance in the "classic," Playstation All Stars Battle Royale as an attempt to market DmC ahead of its release. Yes, Donte technically didn't even debut in his own game. This story is so weird to me! In the trailer he even fights the protagonist of previous Ninja Theory game Heavenly Sword)In 2015, Capcom re-released the game for the new consoles as DmC: Devil May Cry: Definitive Edition. This was largely helmed by the Capcom team in Japan who modified the game to make it more in line with DMC's series standards of gameplay. And you know what? It's really good! Genuinely, it actually makes the game and takes it from "A good attempt" to "one of the best Western attempts at action games period." 60FPS on consoles, all DLC included, Turbo Mode was back, a new mode called Must Style where you have to get an S Rank in combos before your attacks do damage, all alongside an insanely detailed changelog penned by Rahni Tucker. The one downside? It never got released on PC for unsaid reasons, presumably that most of the new gameplay additions... were based on mods made by the PC fanbase. Mods you can no longer find as the site storing them has gone down.
Additional reading if you'd like more words on this reboot:
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